Sportswarbler

Warbling. Opinion. Insight. Advice.

Daily Racing Selections – 29 June 2012

A modest net profit of +5pts from yesterday’s selections but that puts the bank since the official start of the Blog on 1st May 2012 at almost 250pts profit!

It’s a difficult business tipping the night before racing as much can change, not least of which is the ground conditions, market movements, stable vibes and other information, as well as the opportunity to do more analysis. It’s a little like long-range weather forecasting… the general analysis may be right but the pinpoint accuracy is sometimes lacking. Hence, whilst the blog is profitable, I personally add/subtract/amend selections through the day and you should too consider these tips as the start of the decision-making process not the end. ‘Nuff said, now to the tips for Friday:

14.20 Folkestone – Palmette – 4pts @ evens

15.10 Folkestone – Beat The Bell – 3pts @ 7/2

15.35 Doncaster – Chil The Kite – 3pts @ 3/1

15.45 Musselburgh – Daquonde – 4pts @ 2/1

16.10 Doncaster – Jonny Delta – 2pts @ 6/1

16.20 Musselburgh – Ponte Di Rosa – 2pts @ 2/1

16.45 Doncaster – Shada – 2pts @ 15/4

17.40 Folkstone – Watheeq – 5pts @ 6/5 (NAP)

17.55 Newmarket – Sacrilege – 1pt ew @ 16/1 (IWAC)

18.15 Chester – Savannah La Mar– 4pts @ 11/10 (NB)

19.25 Chester – Kenyan Cat – 2pts @ 4/1

20.25 Chester – Silvas Romana – 3pts @ 9/2

20.40 Newmarket – Main Line – 1pt e/w @ 7/1

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Daily Racing Selections – 28 June 2012

Supporters of this Blog are enjoying a rich vein of form right now with another 7 winners from 9 selections yesterday returning c. 250% ROI and 46.5pts profit.  I can’t promise it will always be like this, but let’s take the small downs when we have to and relish the good days. My approach is to avoid Boom and Bust, keeping total outlay relatively low and limiting the exposure to any one particular selection. Let’s hope Thursday is another good one.

15.00 Newcastle – Memory Cloth – 2pts @  7/2

15.30 Newcastle – Pokfulham – 2pts @ 11/2

15.40 Warwick – Sunday Times – 1pt @ 5/1

15.50 Yarmouth – Outlaw Torn – 1pt e/w @ 12/1

16.20 Yarmouth – Rough Rock – 2pts @ 4/1

18.50 Hamilton – Terenzium – 1pt @ 6/1

19.20 Hamilton – Gold Beau – 3pts @ 15/8

20.20 Hamilton – Parley – 2pts @ 4/1

20.50 Hamilton – Fol Hollow – 4pts @ 6/4

21.10 Leicester – Its a Privilege – 3pts @ 3/1

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USPGA Golf – 2012 AT&T National

The USPGA tour moves onto one oy my favourite tournaments of the year – the AT&T National – returnign this year to Congressional Country Club, Bethesda, Maryland. The Congressional is where McIlroy won his U.S. Open title last year, but Rory won’t be here this week, choosing instead to play in the Irish Open at his home course of Portrush. It is an old course which has been partially redesigned and modified many times down the years. It’s a long track that suits long drivers and straight hitting iron players. The course should play relatively easy (easy to its record that is), as temperatures are set to stay high and no forecast wind above a breeze.

MY five against the field are rather predictable this week – the only exception is the absence of Tiger, who is excluded on value grounds.

1. DUSTIN JOHNSON. Since his return from injury, he’s won one title and looked in form. He is a long hitter, good from fairway to green and a solid putter. was T23 in the U.S. Open at Congressional last year. 1pt e/w @ 16/1

2. RYAN PALMER. Mr consistency, finishing inside top ten on four of last five starts. ALikes Congressioal, having finished inside top-25 last two outings including T21st at last year’s U.S. Open. 1pt e/w @ 35/1

3. JIM FURYK. He just has to win soon – doesn’t he? His levels of play are getting better every week. He was 4th in the U.S. Open having been right at the top of the leaderboard at the end of rounds 2 and 3. He has finished inside top-7 last three times the US OPen was played here so we know he’s a form horse on the course. Overall, he has finished inside top-15 in 7 (seven) of his last 9 starts – now that’s consistency. 1.5 pts e/w @ 18/1

4. HUNTER MAHAN. INcredible finish in the Travelers Championship to shoot a 61 that propelled him up the leaderboard to finish T11th. Has high finishes before at Congressional and hoping he can bring momentum of last week into this. 1pt e/w @ 14/1

5. J.B. HOLMES. No harm including big hitting JBH who is almost 100% after his illness and plays this course as good as anyone. Could be his turn this week. 1pt e/w @ 80/1

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Daily Racing Selections – 27 June 2012

15.00 Carlisle – Icelander – 1pts e/w @ 12/1 (IWAC)

16.05 Carlisle – Lexi’s Boy – 2pts @ 4/1

16.05 Carlisle – Eltheeb – 1pt e/w @ 10/1

16,35 Carlisle – No Poppy – 2pts @ 7/2

16.25 Salisbury – Trade Commissioner – 2pts @ 11/4

17.05 Carlisle – Pitkin – 2pts @ 3/1 (NB)

17.25 Salisbury – Dark Ages – 1pt @ 5/1

18.40 Bath – Mysterious man – 2pts @ 2/1

19.50 Kempton – Athenian – 2pts @ 11/4

20.40 Bath – Millibar – 5pts @ 7/2 (NAP)

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Irish Open Golf, Portrush, N.I.

The European tour hosts the Irish Open this week and this time it’s north of the border in the hot-bed of world golfing talent that is Northern Ireland. Two of the last three US Open Champions, Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, and the current British Open Champion, Darren Clarke, line up at their home track to add further spice to the popular event.The local County Antrim boys must have a big advatange here – not having to drink imported inferior black stuff for a start – but only McDowell has his game in good nick and he’d be the one from the trio to make the staking plan. It’s also great to see Keegan Bradley venturing across the Atlantic for a golfing experience like nothing he will encounter in the States – he’s a great young player and I wish him luck.

As you would expect, Portrush is a real golfer’s test of skill, patience and bouncebackability and the wind will have its own say in deciding the winer this week. Last year Simon Dyson took the trophy back across the Irish Sea and having rediscovered his form, he’ll make a bold bid for the honour once more.

I fancy the chances of the Irish Contingent (north and south) to pepper the leaderboard this week, but aside from the big stars including Harrington, I have a feeling Damien McGrane, Michael Hoey, and the veteran Paul McGinley to all feature this week. I’m going to include McGinley as he has shown more than a few glimpses of his old game in recent months.

A while back, I noted a few golfers antepost for the British Open and what applies for that tournament makes good sense here too. They were Branden Grace – golfer of the year for my money so far – and Richard Sterne. Both make the list this week alongside a Spaniard in great form who is sure to love the course setup and conditions – one Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano.

Each-way selections (1st six places) are:

Graeme McDowell @ 11/1

Paul McGInley @ 55/1

Branden Grace @ 40/1

Richard Sterne @ 50/1

Simon Dyson @ 40/1

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ 50/1

And for those who like a big lively outsider, try out Damien Mcgrane @ 110/1 with traditional bookmakers at around 200/1 on Betfair.

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